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Exploring Brazil and India
Exploring Brazil and India
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Exploring Brazil and India

11/06/2018

This month, our experts, Johanna Melka and Sylvain Bellefontaine, from BNP Paribas Economic Research Department, are examining India and Brazil economic perspectives

Brazil: Kicking the can down the road (map to fiscal consolidation)

Sylvain Bellefontaine, BNP Paribas Economic Research Department

Despite the current economic recovery and a persistently favourable international environment, it is still premature to hope for sustainable fiscal consolidation. The errors of fiscal policy in past years have left their mark in the form of deteriorated public finances. The new administration that will take power in January 2019 will face the formidable task of meeting high social expectations while laying down fiscal targets that reassure investors. Structural reforms will have to be reintroduced, such as the pension reform that was swept under the carpet by the Termer administration. Without structural reforms, Brazil’s public finance trajectory could become unsustainable in the medium to long term.

To read the full analysis: here

India: Dynamic momentum on the one hand, fragility on the other

Johanna Melka, BNP Paribas Economic Research Department

On the positive side, growth is accelerating rapidly and should return to levels close to the potential growth rate as of fiscal year 2018/19. Private investment finally seems to be entering a sustainable recovery. As part of a bank recapitalisation plan, public banks, whose asset quality has deteriorated further, received an injection of nearly USD 14 bn in March, which should help ease the pressures on the most fragile banks and bolster the rebound in investment. On the negative side, the government has taken a pause from the consolidation of public finances. The current account deficit has widened slightly, reflecting a deterioration in the terms of trade and a decline in export market shares.

To read the full analysis: here

Insights from BNP Paribas Securities Services

Exploring India

Our guide explains the opportunities and challenges of the Indian capital markets and highlights the recent regulatory updates, along with a synopsis of the current status of the Indian investment market.

Click here to request a copy of the guide

Exploring Brazil

At 2017 Latin America Securities Services Expo, BNP Paribas was joined by a senior roster of thought leaders to discuss the current and forward-looking regional market dynamics and share their first-hand experiences in the Latin America market

Click here to download the post-event report

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